U.S. Intel: Water a Cause for War in Coming Decades

By Matthew Lee

Washington D.C. - Drought, floods and a lack of fresh water may cause significant global instability and conflict in the coming decades, as developing countries scramble to meet demand from exploding populations while dealing with the effects of climate change, U.S. intelligence agencies said in a report released Thursday.

An assessment reflecting the joint judgment of federal intelligence agencies says the risk of water issues causing wars in the next 10 years is minimal even as they create tensions within and between states and threaten to disrupt national and global food markets. But beyond 2022, it says the use of water as a weapon of war or a tool of terrorism will become more likely, particularly in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa.

The report is based on a classified National Intelligence Estimate on water security, which was requested by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and completed last fall. It says floods, scarce and poor quality water, combined with poverty, social tension, poor leadership and weak governments will contribute to instability that could lead the failure of numerous states.

Those elements "will likely increase the risk of instability and state failure, exacerbate regional tensions, and distract countries from working with the United States on important policy objectives," said the report, which was released at a State Department event commemorating World Water Day.

Clinton, who unveiled a new U.S. Water Partnership that aims to share American water management expertise with the rest of the world, called the findings "sobering."

"These threats are real and they do raise serious security concerns," she said.

The report noted that countries have in the past tried to resolve water issues through negotiation but said that could change as water shortages become more severe.

"We judge that as water shortages become more acute beyond the next 10 years, water in shared basins will increasingly be used as leverage; the use of water as a weapon or to further terrorist objectives, also will become more likely beyond 10 years," it said.

The report predicts that upstream nations — more powerful than their downstream neighbors due to geography — will limit access to water for political reasons and that countries will regulate internal supplies to suppress separatist movements and dissident populations.

At the same time, terrorists and rogue states may target or threaten to target water-related infrastructure like dams and reservoirs more frequently. Even if attacks do not occur or are only partially successful, the report said "the fear of massive floods or loss of water resources would alarm the public and cause governments to take costly measures to protect the water infrastructure."

The unclassified summary of the intelligence estimate does not identify the specific countries most at risk. But it notes that the study focused on several specific rivers and water basins. Those included the Nile in Egypt, Sudan and nations further south, the Tigris and Euphrates in Iraq and the greater Middle East, the Mekong in China and Southeast Asia, the Jordan that separates Israel from the Palestinian territories, the Indus and the Brahmaputra in India and South Asia as well as the Amu Darya in Central Asia.

New Foot-and-Mouth Disease Strain Hits Egypt:FAO

Egypt - A new strain of foot and mouth disease (FMD) has hit Egypt and threatens to spread throughout North Africa and the Middle East, jeopardizing food security in the region, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Thursday.

There have been 40,222 suspected cases of the disease in Egypt and 4,658 animals, mostly calves, have already died, the FAO said in a statement citing official estimates.

"Although foot-and-mouth disease has circulated in the country for some years, this is an entirely new introduction of a virus strain known as SAT2, and livestock have no immune protection against it," the Rome-based agency said.

Vaccines are urgently needed as 6.3 million buffalo and cattle and 7.5 million sheep and goats are at risk in Egypt, the FAO said.

"The area around the Lower Nile Delta appears to be severely affected, while other areas in Upper Egypt and the west appear less so," Juan Lubroth, FAO's Chief Veterinary Officer, said, calling for strong action to prevent the spread of the disease.

FMD is a highly infectious and sometimes fatal disease that affects cloven-hoofed animals such as sheep, goats, cattle, buffalo and pigs. FMD is not a direct threat to humans.

Meat and milk from sick animals are unsafe for consumption, not because FMD affects humans, but because foodstuffs entering the food chain should only come from animals that are known to be healthy, the FAO said.

Egypt has some reserves of its own vaccines, but these do not protect against the SAT2 strain. The country could need regional support in mobilizing effective ones, the FAO said.

With vaccines sometimes taking up to two weeks to confer immunity, joint efforts to boost biosecurity measures to limit the spread of the disease are urgently needed, said the FAO whose emergency team visited Egypt last week.

Such measures include limiting animal movements and avoiding contact with animals from other farms; avoiding purchasing animals in the immediate term since they could have come from contaminated sources, preferably by burning carcasses.

Hackers Claim Attack on American Tear Gas Company

United States/Egypt - A U.S. security company whose tear gas has been used against Egyptian demonstrators has become the latest victim of the Anonymous movement, hackers claimed Tuesday.

In a statement posted to the Internet, hackers claimed to have broken into Combined Systems Inc.'s website and stolen personal information belonging to clients and employees of the Jamestown, Pennsylvania-based firm. They accused the company of being run by war profiteers who sell "mad chemical weapons to militaries and cop shops around the world."

The hackers' claims could not immediately be verified, although the company's website was down Tuesday.

Messages left for Combined Systems executives Donald Smith and Jacob Kravel went unreturned. A customer service representative said senior employees were unavailable for comment because they were in a meeting.

Anonymous has claimed a series of Web attacks worldwide and has increasingly focused on security companies, law enforcement and governmental organizations. The group has often worked in tandem with the Occupy protest movement in the U.S. and has expressed solidarity with the pro-democracy activists across the Arab world.

Anonymous said it had targeted Combined Systems because it was supplying weaponry used "to repress our revolutionary movements."

It published a series of what it claimed were intercepted emails, one of which appeared to be a warning that Combined Systems' site had been sabotaged, but the messages' authenticity could also not be confirmed.

Combined Systems says it sells a variety of crowd control devices — including aerosol grenades, sprays and handcuffs — to law enforcement and military organizations across the world. Journalists and activists have reported finding the company's tear gas canisters at Egypt's Tahrir Square, where authorities have repeatedly cracked down on demonstrators with deadly force.

Last year human rights group Amnesty International said that Combined Systems had delivered some 46 tons of ammunition — including chemical irritants and tear gas — to the Egyptian government in three separate shipments.

Amnesty has asked the U.S. government to stop the shipments, which it said should be suspended "until there is certainty that tear gas and other munitions, weaponry or other equipment aren't linked to bloodshed on Egyptian streets."

Anonymous indicated that its attack had been timed to coincide the one-year anniversary of the uprising in Bahrain, the Gulf country hardest hit by upheaval during the so-called "Arab Spring" protests that began last year.

The main Bahrain government website was down for about an hour early Tuesday, but later appeared to be functioning normally. It wasn't clear whether the problem stemmed from any kind of cyberattack.

Odd Stories: Cow Brains Confiscated in Egypt

Cairo - Supply-and-demand on an international scale appeared at an Egyptian airport when 420 pounds of cow brains were discovered and confiscated by authorities for the fourth time in a week.

Raw cow brains are a favored food in Egypt. Because it's extremely cheap to get in Sudan – one pound costs less than a dollar and can be sold for as much as six times as much – Sudanese travelers try to smuggle in the brains and make a profit. If this batch got through it could've netted the three men more than $1,500.

The brains were discovered when airport officials were inspecting the travelers' large freezer boxes. Although it's not illegal to have the brains, they were take and destroyed because they weren't sure they were properly preserved.

Egypt's Military Push Unpopular Among Civilians

Egypt - A rally to push Egypt's military council to hand over power to a government run by the people numbered into the tens of thousands. In the rally both religious and secular people joined forces.

Called the “Friday of One Demand” Egyptians called the protest after the military-backed government passed a “supra-constitution” that would declare the military the guardian of "constitutional legitimacy". “Constitutional Legitimacy” is the suggestion that the armed forces would have the final word on major policies even after a civilian parliament and president are elected.

People from a variety of political groups, such as liberal and conservative Muslims, are trying to change the law, saying it “will push Egypt toward a more civil, secular state.” Others however are calling for it to be eradicated completely.

"My demand is that the ... document be cancelled. Enough. We are tired now. We thank the army, but it's time to transfer power and let the parliament start organizing a constitution and get ready for a civilian state," he said. "I'm happy that all the coalitions are here today,” says Yasir Hamida, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Islam fundamentalists are not alone in in their sentiment. They are joined by liberal and left-leaning groups as well.

The April Sixth Movement known for their solidarity with labor organizations, joined them in the protest. They did so in order to end the military trials of civilians who faced unfair trials that so far resulted in the jailing of thousands of people.

Even those who aren't politically-inclined joined them. Anan Zuhairi, a doctor, said "Nothing we revolted for has happened. Emergency law is still not canceled. People are being taken out of their homes. Our demands have remained the same except they've become more. We just want democracy and freedom. The people with opinions are all in prisons."