U.S. Intel: Water a Cause for War in Coming Decades

By Matthew Lee

Washington D.C. - Drought, floods and a lack of fresh water may cause significant global instability and conflict in the coming decades, as developing countries scramble to meet demand from exploding populations while dealing with the effects of climate change, U.S. intelligence agencies said in a report released Thursday.

An assessment reflecting the joint judgment of federal intelligence agencies says the risk of water issues causing wars in the next 10 years is minimal even as they create tensions within and between states and threaten to disrupt national and global food markets. But beyond 2022, it says the use of water as a weapon of war or a tool of terrorism will become more likely, particularly in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa.

The report is based on a classified National Intelligence Estimate on water security, which was requested by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and completed last fall. It says floods, scarce and poor quality water, combined with poverty, social tension, poor leadership and weak governments will contribute to instability that could lead the failure of numerous states.

Those elements "will likely increase the risk of instability and state failure, exacerbate regional tensions, and distract countries from working with the United States on important policy objectives," said the report, which was released at a State Department event commemorating World Water Day.

Clinton, who unveiled a new U.S. Water Partnership that aims to share American water management expertise with the rest of the world, called the findings "sobering."

"These threats are real and they do raise serious security concerns," she said.

The report noted that countries have in the past tried to resolve water issues through negotiation but said that could change as water shortages become more severe.

"We judge that as water shortages become more acute beyond the next 10 years, water in shared basins will increasingly be used as leverage; the use of water as a weapon or to further terrorist objectives, also will become more likely beyond 10 years," it said.

The report predicts that upstream nations — more powerful than their downstream neighbors due to geography — will limit access to water for political reasons and that countries will regulate internal supplies to suppress separatist movements and dissident populations.

At the same time, terrorists and rogue states may target or threaten to target water-related infrastructure like dams and reservoirs more frequently. Even if attacks do not occur or are only partially successful, the report said "the fear of massive floods or loss of water resources would alarm the public and cause governments to take costly measures to protect the water infrastructure."

The unclassified summary of the intelligence estimate does not identify the specific countries most at risk. But it notes that the study focused on several specific rivers and water basins. Those included the Nile in Egypt, Sudan and nations further south, the Tigris and Euphrates in Iraq and the greater Middle East, the Mekong in China and Southeast Asia, the Jordan that separates Israel from the Palestinian territories, the Indus and the Brahmaputra in India and South Asia as well as the Amu Darya in Central Asia.

New Foot-and-Mouth Disease Strain Hits Egypt:FAO

Egypt - A new strain of foot and mouth disease (FMD) has hit Egypt and threatens to spread throughout North Africa and the Middle East, jeopardizing food security in the region, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Thursday.

There have been 40,222 suspected cases of the disease in Egypt and 4,658 animals, mostly calves, have already died, the FAO said in a statement citing official estimates.

"Although foot-and-mouth disease has circulated in the country for some years, this is an entirely new introduction of a virus strain known as SAT2, and livestock have no immune protection against it," the Rome-based agency said.

Vaccines are urgently needed as 6.3 million buffalo and cattle and 7.5 million sheep and goats are at risk in Egypt, the FAO said.

"The area around the Lower Nile Delta appears to be severely affected, while other areas in Upper Egypt and the west appear less so," Juan Lubroth, FAO's Chief Veterinary Officer, said, calling for strong action to prevent the spread of the disease.

FMD is a highly infectious and sometimes fatal disease that affects cloven-hoofed animals such as sheep, goats, cattle, buffalo and pigs. FMD is not a direct threat to humans.

Meat and milk from sick animals are unsafe for consumption, not because FMD affects humans, but because foodstuffs entering the food chain should only come from animals that are known to be healthy, the FAO said.

Egypt has some reserves of its own vaccines, but these do not protect against the SAT2 strain. The country could need regional support in mobilizing effective ones, the FAO said.

With vaccines sometimes taking up to two weeks to confer immunity, joint efforts to boost biosecurity measures to limit the spread of the disease are urgently needed, said the FAO whose emergency team visited Egypt last week.

Such measures include limiting animal movements and avoiding contact with animals from other farms; avoiding purchasing animals in the immediate term since they could have come from contaminated sources, preferably by burning carcasses.

Anti-war Activist Speaks Against U.S. Treatment of Iran

Minneapolis - Anti-war activist Jess Sundin, one of several activists who were raided by the FBI in an attempt to find links between anti-war activists and groups in Colombia and the Middle East, condemned what she calls an “act of war against Iran.”

“The anti-war movement needs to take U.S. threats against Iran very seriously,” said Sundin. “Over the past several months we have seen more military deployments of U.S. forces into the Persian Gulf, a new round of U.S. sanctions - with more threatened from Europe - and the murder of Iranian scientists. The situation is looking a lot like the run-ups to the U.S. wars on Iraq. In and of themselves, the U.S. sanctions on Iran are an act of war. The sanctions are designed to harm Iran’s economy and cause human suffering on a mass scale.”


Despite the treatment she is facing from the FBI as well as a Chicago grand jury, she continues to speak out against state repression. When questioned about repression from the FBI she said “As peace activists, we need to continue to speak out against all U.S. wars and we need to condemn government repression directed against the anti-war movement, like the attack on Carlos Montes in Los Angeles. He is a veteran leader of the Chicano movement, who speaks out against U.S. intervention abroad. The government wants to put him in jail, and we say drop the charges. “People in this country can’t afford to let the government pick our ‘enemies.’ The State Department is trying to demonize Iran and pave the way towards another war. We have to speak out and say, ‘Hands off Iran.’”