U.S. Intel: Water a Cause for War in Coming Decades

By Matthew Lee

Washington D.C. - Drought, floods and a lack of fresh water may cause significant global instability and conflict in the coming decades, as developing countries scramble to meet demand from exploding populations while dealing with the effects of climate change, U.S. intelligence agencies said in a report released Thursday.

An assessment reflecting the joint judgment of federal intelligence agencies says the risk of water issues causing wars in the next 10 years is minimal even as they create tensions within and between states and threaten to disrupt national and global food markets. But beyond 2022, it says the use of water as a weapon of war or a tool of terrorism will become more likely, particularly in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa.

The report is based on a classified National Intelligence Estimate on water security, which was requested by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and completed last fall. It says floods, scarce and poor quality water, combined with poverty, social tension, poor leadership and weak governments will contribute to instability that could lead the failure of numerous states.

Those elements "will likely increase the risk of instability and state failure, exacerbate regional tensions, and distract countries from working with the United States on important policy objectives," said the report, which was released at a State Department event commemorating World Water Day.

Clinton, who unveiled a new U.S. Water Partnership that aims to share American water management expertise with the rest of the world, called the findings "sobering."

"These threats are real and they do raise serious security concerns," she said.

The report noted that countries have in the past tried to resolve water issues through negotiation but said that could change as water shortages become more severe.

"We judge that as water shortages become more acute beyond the next 10 years, water in shared basins will increasingly be used as leverage; the use of water as a weapon or to further terrorist objectives, also will become more likely beyond 10 years," it said.

The report predicts that upstream nations — more powerful than their downstream neighbors due to geography — will limit access to water for political reasons and that countries will regulate internal supplies to suppress separatist movements and dissident populations.

At the same time, terrorists and rogue states may target or threaten to target water-related infrastructure like dams and reservoirs more frequently. Even if attacks do not occur or are only partially successful, the report said "the fear of massive floods or loss of water resources would alarm the public and cause governments to take costly measures to protect the water infrastructure."

The unclassified summary of the intelligence estimate does not identify the specific countries most at risk. But it notes that the study focused on several specific rivers and water basins. Those included the Nile in Egypt, Sudan and nations further south, the Tigris and Euphrates in Iraq and the greater Middle East, the Mekong in China and Southeast Asia, the Jordan that separates Israel from the Palestinian territories, the Indus and the Brahmaputra in India and South Asia as well as the Amu Darya in Central Asia.

Asian Demand for Ivory Drives Massive Slaughter of Elephants

Cameroon - In less than two months' time more than 200 of Cameroon's elephants have been poached, according to a local radio station and the International Fund for Animal Welfare.

Gambo Haman, governor of the country's north region said "We are talking about a very serious case of trans-frontier poaching, involving well-armed poachers with modern weapons from Sudan and Chad who are decimating this wildlife species to make quick money from the international ivory trade...In January we counted 146 (elephant) carcasses and since the beginning of this month we've had close to 60 already. This may only be a tip of the iceberg as some may have been killed in parts of the park that we cannot access." He also mentioned the poachers usually road on horses and got help from the local populace in exchange for the meat.  The locals also see the elephants as pests.

The International Fund for Animal Welfare (IFAW) said cross-border poaching was common during the dry season but the sheer number of killed elephants so far is record-breaking.


TRAFFIC, a conservation group, warned last year that the huge demand for ivory in Asian countries such as Malaysia and China would cause a supply spike in Africa. This puts the number of killed elephants to about 2,500 and the weight of ivory to 25 tons. The elephants aren't the only ones in danger. So far six Chadian soldiers were also killed as they tried to arrest poachers.

Although Haman said he's released troops to respond as quickly as possible to the poaching, he said there weren't enough troops to cover the entire area.

When asked how many elephants may remain in the country, IFAW said they weren't sure but put the estimate to between 1,000 and 5,000.

Odd Stories: Cow Brains Confiscated in Egypt

Cairo - Supply-and-demand on an international scale appeared at an Egyptian airport when 420 pounds of cow brains were discovered and confiscated by authorities for the fourth time in a week.

Raw cow brains are a favored food in Egypt. Because it's extremely cheap to get in Sudan – one pound costs less than a dollar and can be sold for as much as six times as much – Sudanese travelers try to smuggle in the brains and make a profit. If this batch got through it could've netted the three men more than $1,500.

The brains were discovered when airport officials were inspecting the travelers' large freezer boxes. Although it's not illegal to have the brains, they were take and destroyed because they weren't sure they were properly preserved.

US special forces in Central Africa on the hunt for Joseph Kony

Joseph Kony

Central African Republic- After decades of tyranny on the people of Uganda and other central African countries, Joseph Kony (pictured above) has become a target by 100 special forces sent into Uganda by Obama in October of 2011 to stand trial for acts against humanity. The majority of the troops are stationed in Uganda with others stationed in jungle villages within neighboring countries advising military forces on how to go about tracking the illusive Joseph Kony and rebels of the Lord's Resistance Army.

With the alleged mission of overthrowing the Ugandan government, the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) has been, for the most part, a force of evil. Displaying zero remorse or compassion, the LRA has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of civilians (from babies to elders) with more than 2,000,000 displaced to refugee camps since Kony became it's leader in the early 1980's. The rebel force consists of some supposed hundreds of fighters whose core consists of malicious ranks known for mutilating the innocent, kidnapping young girls and boys for soldiers/sex slaves, & destroying any building or structure (churches, schools, stores, etc) at the village they just invaded. Amongst the ranks, the LRA have become infamous for having child rebel soldiers, most of which were abducted from their villages and forced to fight for the movement's lost cause, some of which as young as 10. In select areas, the LRA have viciously massacred the inhabitants and blamed either the government or the civilians for their heartless acts. In doing such acts, the LRA hopes to make it appear as if Uganda and other nations of Africa have lacking governments that cannot protect or support their people.

Over time, the LRA's leadership dropped the mission of overthrowing the Ugandan government and focused on reigning terror. Through inhumane acts, the LRA proved to be a nefarious terrorist organization, rather than past members of the Acholi ethnic group.

Frustrations with the government following colonization by the British led to a revolutionary militant force seeking fair treatment (by violent means) to those of S. Uganda. When colonized, the people of S. Uganda were met with peace and a friendly British party, yet the people of N. Uganda, known as the Acholi, were enslaved. Years of civil war ensued in Uganda due to such disunity and further spaced any possibility of a peaceful resolution to the conflicts between the Ugandan government and the LRA.

With supposed ally Sudan providing funds, weaponry, etc. to support the LRA's bloodthirsty campaign, a total of four nations have joined the fight along with U.S. special forces in a complex and very dedicated mission to rid the region of the LRA and capture Joseph Kony and the other leaders so they can face their charges in International Criminal Court Alliance.